international-monetary-fund

International Monetary Fund cuts its forecast for global growth.

Overnight the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global growth for the 4th time this year. Interestingly they cited the Brexit vote as a cause of the lowered forecast, with out really understanding how the process works.

Forecasting is given a lot of credence in the financial world and a quick check on how accurate they are would disappoint. The IMF have lowered their forecast 4 times and each time they think it has to do with a particular event.

If they looked at the measures of confidence around the world they could see that the population in general are feeling less confident as the year goes on. This means that the social mood is collapsing and as a result, economic indicators fall as well.

Economic forecasters are unreliable as they use data that can be 12 months old to forecast into the future. Things change and yet it seems, economists never learn.